Economic FirstFT: At present’s prime tales

FirstFT: At present’s prime tales

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The US presidential election was too close to call on Tuesday night time, as Donald Trump and Joe Biden traded victories in conservative and liberal states and waited for the leads to essential battlegrounds.

The US president gained solidly conservative states together with Indiana, Tennessee and South Carolina, whereas his Democratic challenger took New York, Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts and Illinois.

Greater than 100m ballots were cast earlier than election day, shattering earlier information and placing the US on observe for its highest participation price in additional than a century.

Line charts showing historical voter turnout rates in US elections as well as a 2020 prediction from the US Elections Project. The 2020 turnout rate is expected to be the highest in more than 100 years

Donald Trump gained Florida and Ohio, two of the three most necessary swing states, shifting consideration to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. FT columnist Rana Foroohar weighed in on Florida, which is especially essential to Mr Trump’s path to victory:

Florida, maybe greater than another state, represents one of the best and the worst of America . . . Who can the Republican Celebration supply as much as change Trump, ought to he lose, notably if Biden had been to win and take a centrist path? 

Florida is much less necessary to Mr Biden than Pennsylvania, the place Republicans filed a second election day lawsuit in an try to discard some mail-in ballots. Mr Biden was additionally set to win Arizona, a state that Mr Trump gained 4 years in the past.

Whereas some Democrats expressed concern that Mr Trump was doing higher than polls predicted, others referred to as for endurance, mentioning that mail-in ballots in some states, together with Pennsylvania, would take extra time to tally. Listed here are the states to watch.

Keep updated with the FT’s live coverage and results page, up to date with the most recent choices and a calculator for the candidates’ potential paths to victory. (FT)

Election round-up

Election employees open ballots for processing in King County, Washington state © Karen Ducey/Getty Pictures

Republican Senate majority chief Mitch McConnell retained his seat in Kentucky, defeating Democratic challenger, Amy McGrath. Democrats are poised to retain control of the Home of Representatives.

US Treasuries rallied, fairness futures swung and buyers braced for sharp swings in China’s renminbi. Hedge funds are betting against lasting market turmoil, anticipating fears of a delayed and disputed election consequence are overblown.

Line chart of Yield on the 10-year US Treasury (%) showing Treasuries whipsaw as US election results pour in

The US Postal Service disregarded a court order to conduct sweeps in 12 postal districts after greater than 300,000 ballots couldn’t be traced — however there have been no signal of large-scale voter intimidation efforts as of Tuesday.

Right here’s a look in charts on the economic system below Mr Trump, together with the affect on jobs, blue-collar business, housing and commerce.

Employment in Trump-supporting states fared better than others

Social media firms have the unenviable job of spotting misinformation being unfold, Chris Nuttall writes in #techFT — sign up here.

The US election leaves the way forward for the WTO and the worldwide rules-based order in limbo, our Commerce Secrets and techniques e-newsletter writes — sign up here.

And don’t miss the FT’s information on what to watch for because the outcomes are available and our essential election reading. (FT, WaPo, AP)

Timeline showing which swing states could be projected for Biden or Trump to win on election night, based on how they process and count their early votes in advance. Many midwestern states are expected to have delays

Sign up as we speak to Swamp Notes, our e-newsletter on US politics and energy, to obtain our particular post-election version on Wednesday and vote in our latest poll to inform us who you assume will win the election. What do the official polls say? Go to our poll tracker.

Coronavirus digest

  • Unique: The UK has held talks with Palantir, the US knowledge analytics firm, to bolster its test-and-trace programme. The UK additionally plans to spend £1bn on a mass testing plan, however questions persists over accuracy of recent 20-minute exams.

  • Boris Johnson faces a Tory revolt in parliament on Wednesday over a brand new four-week lockdown, and is below strain to extend furlough support after knowledge confirmed more than 2m workers earned lower than the minimal wage in April.

  • Sars-Cov-2 was current in New York Metropolis weeks earlier than detected, a brand new research has discovered.

  • Lebanon faces a medicine shortage as greenback allocations immediate panic shopping for.

  • Belgium’s historical past of weak central authorities and deep regional divisions threaten to hinder its battle with a second surge of the virus. (FT)

Observe our coronavirus tracker for the most recent, and discover extra protection at ft.com/coronavirus.

Within the information

Ant IPO suspended Alibaba’s Hong Kong-traded shares fell as a lot as 9 per cent on Tuesday, placing them heading in the right direction for his or her worst day ever and slashing founder Jack Ma’s wealth by $3bn after regulators halted Ant Group’s $37bn twin itemizing on the eleventh hour. Mr Ma additionally endured a grilling by regulators — a reminder to Chinese language companies that Beijing is still boss. (FT, Bloomberg)

Mr Ma was summoned by regulators after he criticised China’s state-dominated banking sector at a public discussion board

Unique: Barclays to repay thousands and thousands on Malta timeshares Barclays has been ordered by regulators to repay millions of pounds in curiosity on improperly offered timeshare loans in Malta and faces an extra investigation that would pressure the financial institution to reimburse debt funds in full. (FT)

Crispin Odey steps down One of many UK’s best-known hedge fund managers has stepped down from the helm of Odey Asset Administration, the agency he based in 1991, to concentrate on his personal funds. Mr Odey was charged with indecent assault in July, to which he pleaded not responsible. (FT)

Austria terror assault Chancellor Sebastian Kurz condemned the terror attack that killed 4 and left greater than a dozen severely injured in Vienna on Monday night time. Police shot and killed the perpetrator, who had been sporting a faux explosive suicide vest. The UK has raised its menace degree to “severe”. (FT)

Sebastian Kurz, Austria’s chancellor, centre, mentioned Monday’s assault by an Islamist gunman marked a battle between ‘civilisation and barbarism’ © Helmut Fohringer/APA/dpa

Powerful questions for Euronext A sequence of technology glitches at Euronext, the most recent for an hour on Monday, is feeding considerations that the trade group’s ambitions to centralise management of Europe’s capital markets may intensify dangers of failure. Euronext runs the primary exchanges in Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels, Dublin and Lisbon and is in search of so as to add Oslo and Milan. (FT)

Poland delays deliberate abortion restrictions The federal government has postponed a court ruling that will introduce an nearly complete ban on abortion amid mass protests. The ethical hypocrisy of the ban has left the Polish public aghast, writes novelist Magdalena Miecznicka. (FT)

BP seeks sale of London HQ The British oil main is near promoting its world headquarters at 1 St James’s Sq., which homes about 500 staff, for almost £250m because the pandemic forces it to chop prices and speed up an overhaul below new chief government Bernard Looney. (FT)

The day forward

Brexit shortfalls Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, is about to report that shut to 2 weeks of intensified talks have yielded progress in crafting an EU-UK commerce treaty however stalled on the main sticking points. (FT)

Negotiating teams led by Mr Barnier and David Frost, his British counterpart, could take a break on Wednesday to reflect on progress, according to one person briefed on the matter
Negotiating groups led by Mr Barnier and David Frost, his British counterpart, may take a break on Wednesday to mirror on progress, in accordance with one individual briefed on the matter © Kenzo Tribouillard/EPA

Fed meets US central financial institution officers will meet on Wednesday and Thursday, giving them a chance to respond swiftly to any election-induced market turmoil and debate the affect of surging coronavirus circumstances on the restoration. (FT)

Earnings Fitbit, the fitness-tracking firm, whose $2.1bn cope with Google has drawn the scrutiny of EU regulators, experiences on Wednesday, as does French lender Crédit Agricole, journey firm Expedia and UK retailer Marks and Spencer, which beforehand introduced 7,000 job cuts. (FT)

What else we’re studying

We will avert irreversible local weather change One other presidency for Donald Trump is prone to be nowhere extra consequential than for local weather change. The approaching many years will decide whether or not the specter of damaging and irreversible change is averted or not, writes Martin Wolf. (FT)

‘Action is both essential and affordable — but it demands international leaders’ co-operation’
‘Motion is each important and inexpensive — but it surely calls for worldwide leaders’ co-operation’ © James Ferguson

Pretend information is as previous as information itself The manipulation of individuals with disinformation, and one of the best methods for combating it, are as previous as humankind itself, writes Michael Peel. From the fifteenth century on, governments and scientists have unfold falsehoods — with fashionable resonances within the US presidential election and Covid-19 disaster. (FT)

Amazon gold rush Swaths of rainforest have been razed as illegal miners as soon as once more flock to the Amazon. However in contrast to the earlier gold rush of the Eighties, they’re bringing new heavy equipment and monetary knowhow — in addition to violence and organised crime — because the coronavirus pandemic sends gold costs surging. (FT)

Map showing Amazon rainforest, state of Para and Maicuru Biological Reserve

Maintaining key employees protected For a lot of, going out to work within the morning has by no means felt so dangerous. Classes that had been missed within the UK’s first coronavirus wave may shield staff on the entrance line now, Sarah O’Connor writes. (FT)

Arianespace struggles for relevance in SpaceX period The delay to a €4bn next-generation Ariane rocket has underlined the European industrial launch firm’s vulnerability because it struggles to keep pace with disruptive forces unleashed in a drastically modified market. (FT)

The space economy has grown steadily since the last crisis

The final mile If Joe Biden does win, the subsequent query is: how will we really make America nice once more? Rana Foroohar asks in Swamp Notes. First: admit that neoliberalism, as outlined by laissez-faire economics, has failed. Meet the architect of Mr Biden’s financial rescue plan. (FT, NYT)

Podcast of the day

FT Information Briefing Individuals brace for a drawn-out election result and FT US capital markets correspondent Richard Henderson explains which insurance policies from Donald Trump and Joe Biden are most interesting to buyers. (FT)

Illustration of the day

US goes to the polls in landmark election

Lawyer on standby

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